Some of these challenges were inevitable, and others seem to have been avoidable, but no matter how you look at it, those challenges impact our day-to-day living in many ways, including our recreational spending. In the past couple of years, many of us were faced with restrictions on work, travel, and where we could even spend our money. Lots chose to spoil themselves (in an attempt to pass the time and fight the boredom) lashing out on cars, caravans, jet skis, and more. This saw prices rise across many products, specifically classic cars, with some labelling the increases ‘COVID tax’ to explain the almost instant spike in prices.

Looking at the data, the ‘COVID tax’ is gone, but many are still prepared to pay top dollar for their dream cars. The hysteria around classic cars certainly has subsided, clearly some were caught up in the hype and the fear, electing to purchase average cars for above average prices. Perhaps it is acceptance that these purchases for our leisure and pleasure simply cost more now than they did previously, in the same way we loathe watching the petrol bowser counting our dollars away as we fill up the tank.

The tide has risen.

There is an old saying, “A rising tide lifts all boats”, a quote that was made famous by former US President John F Kennedy. The saying refers to the fact that no matter how small or large the vessel is, when the tide is rising, everything is carried upwards together. Looking at the Collectable Car Index, overall, we can see that this has been the case, particularly in Australian classics, which has shown remarkable growth year on year.

More record prices were paid for Aussie classics in late 2021 and into 2022, and as we go to print, even more pedigree cars are hitting the market, with auction houses estimating strong results, despite the uncertainty with the recent election, interest rates rising, and global uncertainty with wars and feuds between countries abroad.

American classics remained fairly consistent, with an overall gain of around 7.5% over the past year or so. If you had money saved in a term deposit that was providing that sort of growth you’d be quite happy, but in classic car terms, this really isn’t a big movement upwards in values at all. The exchange rate, shipping issues and delays, and the difficulty with travel outside of Australia, have certainly all been factors to the values sitting fairly still for American classics.

Cars from Europe on the other hand, grew by more than 20% over the past year overall. Whilst many makes and models had mild growth (like MG B roadsters, VW Beetles, and Mini Coopers), there were others that absolutely rocketed upwards in price and desirability to the market. Specifically, we’ve noticed a huge jump in pedigree Jaguar E-Types, and classic Porsche 911 values, with some models almost doubling in price, such is the enthusiast demand for these cars. We’ve also seen spikes in the value of Ferraris and rare variants of Mercedes Benz, with many of those adding more than 50% to the prices we saw last year. Australia seems to be following a global trend for these cars, so keep an eye on Europe and the USA to see what might happen next.

Lastly, we’ll touch on the cars from Japan. We’ve yet to include Japanese classics and performance cars in the index specifically, but the more that this genre grows, the more we’ll have to consider it in the future! This is another category of cars that seems to be following global trends, and with the American laws now changed to allow Japanese imports into the country, the demand for these cars across the world is rising. With another couple of ‘Fast & Furious’ movies due for release in the next couple of years, you can be sure that the younger generation and fans of JDM cars will be continuing to look for their dream cars both here and abroad.

The best data – compiled by the experts

VIP Automotive Solutions has analyzed more than 50 years of sales data, to provide the public with a snap shot of the history of collectable car values in Australia. Just like investors look to the Dow Jones Index to measure the share market, the Collectable Car Index provides a fact based indicator of the trends in prices of collectable classic cars over the past 30 years. It is a visual representation of a particular segment of the market or car, which will show its rise and fall in value over a period of time.

The Collectable Car Index is designed to provide the ‘bigger picture’ of what the value of a classic car was at a particular time, and what it could lead to in the future. Where is the market heading next? What’s your old car really worth? Is now the best time to buy?

The experts have provided the answers right here, read on and get brought up to speed with the best market reports and data available.

The Facts:

So many of our purchasing decisions can be based on emotions. But it is good advice to also consider the facts, to make sure they align with your feelings, and that you’re not clouded or influenced too much by the wrong things. The facts come from the past, and analyzing where we’ve come from. Hindsight is always so clear, especially when we’ve made the wrong call!

Interest rates are a huge topic of discussion, though right now they are still half of what they were back in 2017. Looking at the share market and the ASX100, there’s been about 23% growth over the past five years, with the average house price increasing around 28% over the same period. The Collectable Car Index, has more than doubled in that time, which boggles the mind. If you don’t believe it, check your magazine collection for our 2017 value guide and compare things yourself, you’ll be blown away. The likelihood of a crash is very small, sure there may be some bumps in the road now and then, but if the last two decades tell us anything, classic car values (just like real estate prices) have headed in one direction only, and that is up.

The Figures:

The figures used in the Collectable Car Index are from a number of industry sources. They range from auction houses, leading online classifieds, classic car dealers, valuation experts, and collectors themselves. For example, the index is based on the average selling price of the top 50 collectable cars in the Australian market. To keep the data accurate, the index excludes ‘Icons’ which are cars that may cause the index to spike.

The Icons:

Iconic cars generally go against trends, and are sought after no matter what is popular at the time, and no matter the global circumstances. Generally, these have been the cars that have sold for the highest prices in the past. The sales of these cars have broken records, surprised onlookers, and frightened accountants in the past. They are dream cars for most, and rarely come up for sale. And when they do, the right buyers are poised and ready to get involved, knowing just how special the opportunity is to secure an Iconic car.

1971 Ford Falcon XY GT-HO Phase III
1977 Ford Falcon XC Cobra Option 97
1968 Holden Monaro HK GTS 327
1977 Holden Torana LX SS A9X Hatch
1970 Valiant Pacer E34
1972 Valiant Charger VH E49 R/T
1968 Shelby Mustang GT500
1970 Plymouth Superbird
1966 Shelby Cobra 427
1965 Aston Martin DB5
1973 Porsche 911RS
1954 Mercedes-Benz 300 SL
1972 Ferrari Dino 246 GT Berlinetta

The Trends:

In Australia, the index reveals that it was in fact European cars that were most valuable in the 1980s. It wasn’t until the mid-1990s, that the American cars really began to gain value over the Euro classics. In late 2005, the Australian cars experienced a sharp rise – known as the ‘Muscle Car Boom’ which continued steadily until around 2008, and was then followed by a decline for all cars in 2009, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

A brief recovery was shown in early 2010, followed by further decline in the following two years. A trend of slow increases followed from 2012 onwards, where the market continued its recovery. With more than five years straight of rising prices, things started to flatten out. A couple of years ago the COVID pandemic struck, which saw a brief freeze on activity, though the activity that followed surprised many investors and onlookers, with cars selling for the highest prices we’ve ever seen!

A handful of blue chip models have slightly skewed the results for cars out of Europe, following global trends and purchased made by affluent collectors who like the finer things in life. Australian cars are still the juggernaut, and like a snowball rolling down a hill, they’re gathering momentum and growing in size along the way. The question of what the next big thing is remains, we’re keeping our eyes on the markets overseas and monitoring for any patterns or spikes that may influence our market here in Australia.

More buyers than ever

In previous editions, we’ve mentioned the new generation of buyers, and again this cohort had a big impact on cars that have sold of late. More and more cars from the 1980s and 1990s are hitting the market, and each year another make and model becomes a classic, and therefore eligible for club registration. The younger generation may not have the same attraction to chrome bumpered classics, but their interest in modern classics has enabled others to sell their cars and essentially ‘trade up’ to those classic cars they’ve been dreaming of.

There are also established buyers who are also becoming sellers, they sometimes ‘shuffle the deck’ of their collection, choosing a car from their stable that they’d like to move on, with a view of replacing it with something new. And, there are also those who are seeking to downsize their collections, realizing that spare time is hard to find to enjoy their toys, and having multiple cars in their collection might not be all that sensible or suitable for them anymore. Selling two or three cars, to buy one really special one, is becoming more common with those who have sizable gatherings of cars in their garage or shed.

The Predictions:

It’s time to dust off the crystal ball again, and look to the horizon and the future, envisaging what might happen next. We see two clear sets of buyers, those who are new to the game, and those who’ve been playing it for a very long time.

The new players won’t follow traditional trends or walk exactly the same path as those before them, though they could be swayed by limited build models and special editions, particularly those with specific build numbers and small volumes. This refers to both older classics with build numbers (like HDT Brock Commodores) as well as modern performance cars (including the likes of HSV and FPV).

Those with experience in the classic car market, appear to be really focused on the hero cars. As previously mentioned, selling a handful of cars to make space and gather funds, might just allow someone to set their sights on a HQ Monaro GTS 350 or XW Falcon GTHO Phase II. These top level cars may have been out of reach ordinarily, but by selling what they’ve got (which they have no doubt made money on), they can finally get closer to the top of that mountain of ‘elite’ collector car ownership.

And as a bit of a wildcard prediction, we feel that there will be buyers that are moving in to a new genre of cars, selling something they’ve had for quite some time, to experience a new type of car entirely. An example of this might be an enthusiast who has owned a HSV VL Walkinshaw for many years, and is ready to put themselves behind the wheel of a modern classic like a HSV VF GTS-R. Out with the old, and in with the new!

We also predict there will be more buyers who are happy to pay the price ‘early’ for a car. What does that mean? Essentially it means the same thing as paying ‘too much’ for a car. However, the buyer really isn’t paying too much for it at all, they’re paying what they choose to pay, to secure the car for themselves. They are paying the market price early, and in time, the market will catch up, and most likely surpass the price they paid, it just means that they made that decision before everyone else did. A recent example of this was brought to our attention was a collector that purchased a VN SS Commodore around four years ago. The price they paid at the time was considered by many as far too much, however now that same car is worth considerably more than the purchase price, and in today’s terms that same purchase price today would be considered a bargain! So remember, you’re not paying too much for the car, you’re just paying it early.

When we look back at the data, both from recent times, and also from decades ago, it is clear that Australian car enthusiasts are passionate, dedicated, and willing to take a risk now and then. Will the bubble burst? Will the market crash? Unlikely, but not impossible. What is more likely, is the continued trajectory of growth across the many sub-segments of the market. Our experts predict consistent growth for the twelve months, with some ebbs and flows along the way of course, but on the whole, they are confident that the market will be ahead of where it is today.

The Summary

After considering all the data, looking at the past, observing the present, and forecasting for the future, despite a few bumps in the road, it is clear that the classic car market is alive and well. If you’ve been to a car show in the past six months, you’ll see that there are more people joining the scene than ever before. There are also cars arriving at these shows that have not been seen before, helping keep those social events fresh and interesting for attendees and entrants. Classic cars are plentiful, there are lots around across all difference price points to suit all kinds of budgets. The trick is choosing the right one for you.

No pain, no gain?

Sure, there may be a little uncertainty across the global economy. But humans are generally a little bit selfish, we spend our money on the things that we enjoy and make us happy. So, if there is a will, there is a way, and even in tougher economic conditions, cars that we dream of and the cars we lust after, will come to market, looking for a new custodian. Of course, not everyone can afford to buy a classic car. The same can be said for real estate, and yet, the prices continue to climb as buyers and investors manage to still find a way to make it happen.

We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again! Make sure you have your copy of The Complete 2022 Classic Car Value Guide at hand when you are looking to buy or sell a classic car. You can refer to the colored tabs to double check your prices easily. And if subscribe to the SCA Value Guide today and you’ll receive the updated Value Guide each year!

After all this reading, if you are ready to buy, then make sure you take a good look at the car, and double check this value guide. If you are unsure, we recommend to get a second opinion or better yet a professional opinion from a classic car expert or inspection service such as www.vipautomotivesolutions.com.au.